On October 18, the China Meteorological Administration released a mid-term weather forecast indicating that the central and eastern regions are expected to experience widespread cooling and precipitation over the next ten days.
Looking back at the past ten days (October 8-17), areas including western North China, eastern and western Huai River regions, parts of southwestern China, and the Yangtze River Delta have recorded rainfall amounts between 30 to 70 millimeters, with some locations exceeding 100 millimeters. Overall, these areas saw above-average precipitation, while other regions in China experienced below-average rainfall.
In terms of temperatures, except for some areas in the southwest where it was slightly cooler, most of the country experienced above-average temperatures. Notably, the northwest, Huanghuai region, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi reported average temperatures 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than the historical norm.
Looking ahead to the next ten days (October 18-27), regions such as northern Xinjiang, eastern parts of the southwest, Jianghan, eastern Huanghuai, western Jiangnan, and western South China may receive 10 to 30 millimeters of rainfall, with some areas anticipating 50 to 70 millimeters. Rainfall levels in these areas are expected to be above the historical averages, while eastern regions will likely see less precipitation.
Temperature-wise, areas including North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, most parts of Jianghuai and Jiangnan, as well as Xinjiang, could experience average temperatures 1 to 3 degrees Celsius lower than the norm, whereas much of central China and southeastern Jiangnan and South China could see temperatures about 2 degrees Celsius higher.
Key weather events are forecasted as follows:
On the 18th, a strong cold front will continue to affect much of the region north of the Yangtze River. Areas in eastern Northwest China, northeastern regions, and parts of North China are expected to see temperature drops ranging from 8 to 10 degrees Celsius, with some places experiencing drops of 10 to 12 degrees Celsius or more. Wind speeds are expected to reach 4 to 6 levels, with gusts hitting 7 to 9 levels, particularly in eastern coastal areas where winds might reach 9 to 11 levels. Heavy rains are likely in parts of eastern Hebei, eastern Shandong, central Sichuan, western Chongqing, central and southern Hunan, central and western Jiangxi, eastern Guangxi, and western Guangdong, with some areas in Shandong, northern Guizhou, and central Hunan expecting downpours. Northern Xinjiang and southeastern Tibet may also see moderate to heavy snowfall or sleet, with regional heavy or extreme snowfalls possible.
From the 19th to the 21st, a second wave of cold air will move eastward, bringing light to moderate rain or snow across eastern Northwest China, eastern and northern regions of the southwest, Jianghan, Huanghuai, and western and northern Jiangnan. Northern Xinjiang, the Tibetan Plateau, and northern and western mountainous areas of North China could see light to moderate snow or sleet. Between the 20th and 22nd, regions in central and eastern parts of the country may undergo temperature drops of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius, with localities in the north experiencing drops up to 8 to 10 degrees Celsius.
In the long-term forecast for the next 11 to 14 days (October 28-31), areas in eastern and southeastern Northwest China, western Jiangnan, and central to western South China may receive cumulative rainfall between 10 to 25 millimeters. While temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northeastern regions may remain 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above norms, most of the country is anticipated to have temperatures close to historical averages or 1 to 2 degrees Celsius below.
Key weather impacts to monitor include:
1. **Phase shifts in northern temperatures**: Cold air influences will be strong in the north until the 22nd, resulting in colder than average temperatures in most northern areas, particularly 2 to 4 degrees Celsius lower in East and North China. A significant cold air front will affect areas north of the Yangtze, creating windy and cool conditions, with the zero-degree line expected to be near southern Shanxi and northern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area between the 19th and 20th; another wave of cold air will move from west to east from the 20th to the 22nd.
2. **Increased precipitation in the central and eastern regions**: Significant rainfall is expected in central and eastern China, with major rain events forecasted for October 17-18 and 19-21. Northern regions and high-altitude areas could see snow or sleet, with western China particularly susceptible to an above-average number of rainy days and precipitation totals potentially 1 to 3 times the historical averages.
