In recent days, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has escalated significantly. On October 15, the South Korean government strongly condemned North Korea for destroying sections of the Gyeongui and Donghae railway lines that connect the two Koreas. In response, the South Korean military conducted counter-fire exercises in areas south of the Demilitarized Zone.
Meanwhile, North Korea has been vocal regarding the incident involving a South Korean drone allegedly violating its airspace. On October 14, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un chaired a defense and security meeting, reiterating the strong military and political stance of the North Korean government.
So, is the Korean Peninsula really a powder keg ready to ignite, and who might be stoking the flames? We invited Park Kwang-hae, a researcher at the Korean Studies Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and an expert on Korean Peninsula issues, to provide an in-depth analysis.
**A Deteriorating North-South Relationship: Is Conflict Imminent?**
“The escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula didn’t arise overnight,” Park noted. “In fact, the deterioration began when the Yoon Suk-yeol administration shifted away from the Moon Jae-in government’s dialogue-oriented approach, opting instead for a tougher stance on the North.”
He elaborated that in recent years, the Yoon administration has bolstered military cooperation with the U.S. and has been part of trilateral exercises involving Japan. In April 2023, South Korea signed the Washington Declaration with the United States, and in July 2024, it plans to sign a joint statement on nuclear deterrence and operational guidelines concerning North Korea, all in response to perceived threats from the North. On August 15, 2024, during the 79th anniversary of Liberation Day, Yoon proposed a “vision for unification and a strategy to promote unity,” which he argues has provoked a strong reaction from North Korea.
Looking ahead, Park anticipates that tensions could persist. “Both sides are showing emotional reactions, and the risk of a misfire is still present,” he explained. “The lack of any dialogue channels is a significant reason for the strained relations.” However, he also stressed that the likelihood of war between the North and South remains relatively low, estimating that the situation can be effectively managed. “Firstly, the recent measures taken by North Korea have been defensive rather than offensive. Secondly, despite the high rhetoric, there is a degree of restraint when it comes to discussions about war or conflict,” Park stated.
**Tensions on the Korean Peninsula: Who Is Behind the Escalation?**
On October 14, following the recent rise in tensions, Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the North Korean Workers’ Party, issued a stern warning to South Korea, stating, “If the sovereignty of a nuclear-armed country is violated by a U.S.-subservient force (South Korea), then the master (the U.S.) should take responsibility.”
Shortly before this, Kim Jong-un had also criticized the U.S. and its allies for escalating threats against North Korea, insisting that North Korea must “continue to expand and enhance its self-defense capabilities” focused on nuclear power and preemptive strike capacity.
As the situation on the Peninsula tightens, what role is the U.S. playing? Park argues that while there have been moments of thawing in U.S.-North Korea relations, the overall trend has been one of diplomatic isolation, military pressure, and economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., which have exacerbated the divisions and distrust among the parties involved.
Reports indicate that since 2024, the U.S. has engaged in anti-North Korean activities under the guise of “human rights,” conducting annual joint military exercises with South Korean forces. Additionally, strategic assets like nuclear submarines have been deployed to the region. The U.S. and its allies are also working toward institutionalizing defense cooperation, aimed at deterring perceived nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.
Park asserts that the U.S. does not genuinely seek a resolution to the issues on the Korean Peninsula, highlighting that its actions are primarily driven by its own geopolitical interests. “The U.S. views the situation on the Peninsula as a means to rally allies and secure its strategic benefits,” he noted.
He explained that heightened tensions lead Japan and South Korea to feel insecure, reinforcing their reliance on U.S. military protection, thereby allowing American forces to maintain a significant presence in the region. Simultaneously, Park notes that the U.S. is using the situation to advance its “Indo-Pacific” strategy, pushing for the “NATOization of the Asia-Pacific” and forming exclusive groups like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and AUKUS to counter North Korea collectively.
“In summary, the U.S. policies toward North Korea and its so-called ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy have fueled the ongoing escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” Park emphasized.
