As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky races to Washington and Europe to unveil his “victory plan,” the Ukrainian forces continue to face setbacks on the battlefield. Notably, nearly half of the territory in the Kursk region, which the Ukrainian military crossed into and captured this summer, has been reclaimed by Russian troops.
In early August, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive from Sumy in the northeast, penetrating into Russia’s Kursk region. According to the Washington Post, Ukrainian officials at the time hailed this as a successful operation, seizing hundreds of Russian soldiers to potentially exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war. However, recent Russian counterattacks have led to questions about how long Ukrainian forces can hold their positions in Kursk.
The Institute for the Study of War, which has been monitoring the battlefield dynamics since the onset of the invasion, has cited visual evidence indicating that 46% of the territory captured by Ukraine in Kursk has already been retaken by Russian forces.
The Washington Post argues that these recent losses in Kursk underscore the military challenges Ukraine faces as discussions about ending the war progress. Throughout the year, Russian forces have steadily advanced in eastern Donetsk, and recent gains have also been observed in northeastern Kharkiv, bringing them closer to Kupyansk, a strategic city reclaimed by Ukrainian forces two years ago.
Zelensky’s inclusion of the land captured in Kursk as part of his victory plan is seen as a strong bargaining chip for future negotiations with Russia. However, the ongoing Russian counteroffensive has shaken Ukraine’s position in this regard.
Analysts suggest that the initial aim of the counteroffensive in Kursk was to draw Russian troops away from their positions, alleviating pressure on the Ukrainian front lines in the east. It seems this goal has faltered, as Russian forces maintain much of their momentum in their eastern invasion, continuing to target Ukrainian logistical hubs around Pokrovsk and the critical outpost of Kurakhove.
Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia is expected to bolster its presence in the Kursk region, including deploying some of the thousands of North Korean troops that have been training in Russia and are now ready to engage in combat. This shift would allow Russia to reposition some elite units from the Kursk front to other battle lines.
