As Ukrainian President Zelensky makes his whirlwind trip to Washington and Europe to present his “Victory Plan,” the Ukrainian military is facing new setbacks on the battlefield. Notably, nearly half of the territories captured by Ukrainian forces in the Russian-held Kursk region this summer have already been reclaimed by Russian troops.
In early August, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive from the northeastern Sumy region, successfully entering Russian territory in Kursk. The Washington Post reported that at the time, Ukrainian officials touted it as a significant success, capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers that could be exchanged for Ukrainian captives. However, recent Russian counterattacks in Kursk have raised doubts about how much longer Ukrainian forces can maintain their hold in the area.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has been closely monitoring battlefield dynamics since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighted visual evidence indicating that 46% of the land Ukraine had seized in Kursk has now been regained by Russian forces.
The Washington Post suggests that these recent losses in Kursk underscore the military challenges Ukraine faces as discussions about ending the war progress. Throughout this year, Russian forces have steadily advanced in eastern Donetsk, and more recently, they have made gains not just in Kursk but also in northeastern Kharkiv, threatening the strategically significant city of Kupyansk, which was retaken by Ukraine two years ago.
Zelensky has integrated the territory regained in his Kursk counteroffensive into his Victory Plan, positioning it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Russia. However, the Russian counteroffensive is undermining Ukraine’s advantage in this regard.
Analysts also point out that the initial intent of the counteroffensive in Kursk was to draw Russian forces away to bolster their positions elsewhere, thereby alleviating pressure on Ukrainian troops along the eastern front. Yet, this objective appears to have failed, as Russian forces continue to retain significant momentum in eastern Ukraine, launching assaults on logistical hubs like Pokrovsk and key locations such as Kurakhove.
Ukrainian military intelligence predicts that Russia plans to reinforce the Kursk region, potentially deploying some of the thousands of North Korean troops that have been training in Russia and are now preparing to join the fight. This would enable Russia to shift its elite units engaged in Kursk to other fronts.
